America votes: How the election could impact the Canada-U.S. border

As we move closer to the U.S. election, CTVNews.ca will be examining the relationship between Canada and the U.S. in a series of features.

While America’s southern border remains a hot button issue on the campaign trail, the result of the U.S. election in November could also impact the northern frontier with Canada, which remains the longest undefended border in the world. In their quests for the White House, Republican candidate Donald Trump has vowed to deport millions of undocumented migrants while Democrat Kamala Harris has toughened her stance on unlawful border crossings and asylum seekers.

“If Trump were elected and engaged in mass deportation, many of those people are going to be seeking asylum in Canada, so that’s something that I suspect people in Ottawa are talking about,” Western University political science professor Donald Abelson told CTVNews.ca. “With Harris probably less so, in large part because her policies would be less draconian, not to say that she’ll be easy when it comes to border issues.”

If Trump or Harris becomes the next American president, here is how the Canada-U.S. border could be affected.

After Trump was inaugurated as U.S. president in Jan. 2017, Canada quickly saw an uptick in irregular border crossings and asylum claims. Under the threat of deportation by Trump’s administration, it seems thousands of undocumented migrants and former temporary U.S. residents preferred to take their chances by walking into Canada.

According to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canadadata, irregular arrivals skyrocketed from 2,434 in 2016 to 20,593 in 2017, while asylum claims more than doubled from 23,860 to 50,375 in the same period. The majority arrived by land in Quebec, putting obscure and unofficial border crossings like Roxham Road squarely in the national spotlight.

Irregular border crossings surged to a new peak in 2022 under President Joe Biden, just before Canada and the U.S. made a March 2023 rule change to the Safe Third Country Agreement that limited asylum claims to official border outposts. While asylum claims remain high in Canada, irregular crossings have since fallen.

On the campaign trail, Trump has vowed a new wave of mass deportations by invoking wartime powers, using the military and relying on allied state governors.

“You know, we had to deal with this before,” Abelson, who specializes in American politics and U.S. foreign policy, said of Trump’s latest deportation threat. “That is certainly entirely possible that we would have to prepare for that.”

Potentially targetting millions, it remains to be seen if something of this scale is even feasible, or if it’s destined to stall like Trump’s previously proposed border wall. It is estimated that more than 11 million undocumented migrants reside in the U.S.

“What Trump seems to be contemplating is potentially lawful,” Joseph Nunn, counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University’s School of Law, told the Associated Press. “It is going to be logistically extraordinarily complicated and difficult… but it is possible, so it should be taken seriously.”

Annual deportations during Trump’s first term never exceeded 350,000, well below former President Barack’s Obama’s record-breaking 432,000 in 2013. But unlike Obama, Trump has long targeted undocumented migrants to rally his base.

“As soon as I take the oath of office, we will begin the largest deportation operation in the history of our country,” Trump said at a Michigan campaign event in July. The following month in Montana, he promised to “seal the border, stop the invasion and send the illegal aliens back home where they belong.”

Toronto-based immigration consultant Al Parsai says more stringent border controls under Trump could slow the flow of people and goods between the U.S. and Canada. An estimated 400,000 people cross between the two countries daily for work, tourism, shopping and more.

“Trump’s approach could lead to more rigorous border checks and potentially longer wait times for Canadians and Americans crossing the border,” Parsai told CTVNews.ca. “His emphasis on security might lead to additional requirements or stricter inspections for travellers, complicating the border crossing experience. This could frustrate frequent cross-border travellers, especially if security measures become overly restrictive.”

On the campaign trail, Harris has recently tried to project a tougher stance on migration, but one that can still appeal to liberal voters.

“I reject the false choice that suggests we must either choose between securing our border or creating a system of immigration that is safe, orderly, and humane,” Harris said during a Sept. 27 speech in Arizona, which borders Mexico. “We can and we must do both.”

Because of their close ties to Canada, Harris and her vice presidential running mate are generally seen as easier for Ottawa to work with. Harris spent formative years in Monreal, where she graduated from high school. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, whose state shares an 885-km border with Ontario and Manitoba, has also long promoted the personal, cultural and economic relationship between the neighbouring countries.

“I think Harris, who has a lot of familiarity with Canada, has lived here, we would have a much, much easier relationship with her and her running mate Waltz than Trump and Vance,” Abelson said. “There’s no question about that.”

Harris, however, has been known to shift and change her positions. She previously objected to Obama-era deportations and once backed calls to treat illegal border crossings as civil instead of criminal violations. As a presidential candidate, Harris has hardened her image by vowing to enhance border security and crack down on illegal migration.

“The United States is a sovereign nation, and I believe we have a duty to set rules at our border and to enforce them, and I take that responsibility very seriously,” Harris said in Arizona. “Those who cross our borders unlawfully will be apprehended and removed and barred from re-entering for five years… And if someone does not make an asylum request at a legal point of entry and instead crosses our border unlawfully, they will be barred from receiving asylum.”

Abelson says the tone Harris has taken while campaigning may change if she secures the presidency.

“Certainly the Harris camp is pivoting a bit, certainly becoming a little bit more conservative, because the concern among undecided voters seems to be that she won’t be tough enough or she won’t be able to protect American interests as well as Trump,” Abelson said. “But as you know there is a huge difference between campaigning and governing and at this point, of course, her number one priority is to get elected. And once they do, then the rhetoric at least for someone like Harris would be toned down. Not so much for Trump.”

Nearly every U.S. election comes with headlines about Americans threatening to move north to Canada if their preferred candidate loses.

U.S. citizens typically represent a small but steady portion of new permanent residents to Canada, at just under three per cent since 2015. While interest can surge around elections, experts say this rarely results in substantial immigration numbers.

“Since Trump, we are seeing many more immigration applicants wanting to leave the U.S. for a more liberal Canada,” Toronto-based immigration lawyer Jacqueline Bart previously told CTVNews.ca. “Most of the Americans seeking to move to Canada are liberal middle-aged Americans. Given their age, it is difficult to immigrate unless they have Canadian full-time employment or start a business in Canada.”

With files from The Canadian Press and the Associated Press